Canadians support the death penalty?

I had no idea. Here's the article:

US, Britain and Canada Endorse Death Penalty

Most people in the United States, Britain and Canada support relying on the death penalty for homicide convictions, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 84 per cent of respondents in the U.S., 67 per cent in Britain, and 62 per cent in Canada share this view.

Since 1976, 1,193 people have been put to death in the United States, including five this year. More than a third of all executions have taken place in the state of Texas. Fifteen states and the District of Columbia do not engage in capital punishment.

Britain began a five-year moratorium on all death penalties from criminal convictions in 1965, and made the suspension permanent in 1969. Execution for any of five military offences—including "Serious Misconduct in Action" and "Obstructing Operations or Giving False Air Signals"—was repealed in 1998, though the last instance of its invocation occurred in 1942.

The last execution in Canada took place in 1962, and the country abolished the death penalty altogether in 1976.

Polling Data

Would you support punishing each of the following crimes with the death penalty? - Homicide (murder)

	CAN	USA	BRI
Yes	62%	84%	67%
No	29%	14%	23%
Not sure	10%	3%	10%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,001 Canadian adults, 1,004 American adults, and 1,049 British adults, conducted from Aug. 13 to Aug. 16, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Here's the complete poll.

There are some that question the validity of the methodology of online polling that Angus Reid undertake. I'm not completely convinced myself, but I haven't talked to anyone about it or looked into it very much.

Also in the poll:

44% of Canadians say that, to the best of their knowledge, crime rates in their country have increased on the last five years (though it's fewer than in the US and UK, at 56 and 59% respectively).

Typically, they're wrong. According to StatsCan, crime was down 5% in 2008 (latest years for which there are total numbers), and has been on a general decline since its peak in 1991. It rose slightly in 2003 but has declined steadily since. Not only that, but the severity of crime has followed the same trend.*

62% believe long prison sentences are the most powerful way to reduce crime.

Don't get too alarmed. 79% believe rehabilitation is an important part of crime prevention, and 88% believe the justice system should focus, above else, on preventing crime.

Bit of a mixed bag, I suppose.


*Homicides were one of the few violent crimes to increase in 2008, though they make up less than 1% of violent crime.

Canadians think Stephen Harper is...

A whole raft of things, I'm sure, but "not doing a good job" is right up there. I just subscribed to the RSS feeds for the Angus Reid Global Monitor, a newsletter from the polling firm that deals with almost every political situation around. Here's something you might not have seen about Stephen Harper:

Rating for Harper Drops to 28% in Canada

Fewer Canadians are satisfied with the way their prime minister is handling his duties, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 28 per cent of respondents approve of the Stephen Harper’s performance, down four points since December.

And down six points from November. Something is hurting the Prime Minister, and I'm guessing it's not his foreign policy. An Angus Reid poll from the first week of January shows only 19% of Canadians agreeing with Harper's decision to prorogue Parliament. 53% disagree, and 28% aren't sure.

Did Harper think his Conservative party can weather the storm, that Canadians don't really care whether Parliament is sitting or not? That this will be just a blip on the electoral landscape come September, and that by announcing the decision over the holidays and on a (figurative) Friday, that no one would really notice?

David Eaves thinks otherwise. He writes that the anti-Harper/prorogation Facebook group will help to extend the issue. At 200,000 members, the group continues to grow, and as David points out, may help to circumvent the traditional news cycle. This issue isn't going away; even if those 200,000 people don't get out and march, they're still using Facebook to raise awareness of the issue.


Seeing these numbers, the opposition may take a run at Harper when Parliament returns in March. With a 28% approval rating and only 19% in favour of prorogation, Harper looks weak right now. The only question is whether the opposition parties feel strong enough to challenge him at the ballot box.

Federal polling VI - coalition numbers

CTV released polling numbers on the coalition.

Do Canadians think the government should remain in power?

"Canadians are deeply divided on whether the Conservatives deserve to stay in power, with 35 per cent saying the party should continue to govern and 40 per cent wanting change..."

Hmmmm....35% is about what the Conservatives got in the last election, which is within the poll's margin of error. So, no more divided than before this "crisis".*

If the coalition falls, Canadians would want:
- Opposition coalition: 37 per cent
- Holding a federal election: 32 per cent
- No sure: 24 per cent
- Allowing the opposition to run by accord: 7 per cent

"A full 75 per cent thought the government should implement a stimulus package as soon as possible, while 17 per cent disagreed."

* Yes, I realize that 25% of respondents weren't sure, and some of those will be more likely to support the current government while others will be more likely to support a new coalition government. For the record, I'm in the "don't think the coalition is a great idea but I can't imagine Harper continuing as PM after he steered his party into this debacle so something has to change and I voted for a coalition party so I may as well support their bid for forming a not-batshit-crazy government" group.

Seat total predictions

Seats in Parliament as of the dissolution for the election, according to Wikipedia:
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
127----95----48-----30------1------3

Current prediction from democraticSPACE.com:
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
130----92----49-----35------0------2

If this is the final result (and it won't be), is there a winner? Does Harper keep on keepin' on? Does Dion remain, on the strength of his comeback? Does Layton trumpet his gains while decrying the electoral system (I would)? Does Elizabeth May have anything to add to the conversation? And who are these independents?

Prediction from the UBC Election Stock Market (as of 11:15am Thursday the 9th):
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
128----90----46-----41------0------3

Was I wrong? aka Federal polling V

"2008 federal election: In the space of a few years, the once fragmented right returns to power while the once natural governing party is is reduced to one of three parties on the fragmented left."

This was my cheeky little line about the 2008 election before it was over. I just saw some numbers that seem to indicate that the Liberals have rebounded and today I read for the first (and possibly only) time that the Conservatives may lose seats this election. Is that possible? I don't have the wherewithal to research the various close ridings, but these come to mind: The Bloc is again in first in the polls in Quebec. The Liberals are back on top in Ontario. The NDP are swinging for the fences in BC.

Edit: I just read an Accidental Deliberations post that tried to work out why the Conservatives' election strategy isn't going so well and why they might not be able to re-focus their strategy. Very interesting. They may not have room to move on the economy, which is now front and centre.

Federal polling IV

Every day we hear new numbers, shifts that fall within the margin of error. How much sense does it make to report that the NDP has increased their support to 16% from 15% if the margin of error is 2%?

This is the best thing I've read so far on polling for the federal election: Rob Annandale at the Tyee posted a story about two different approaches to election predictions: a results stock market and a gossip poll. Between them and the pollsters, can you guess who was more accurate? You're right, it wasn't the pollsters, it was the million monkeys typing on a million typewriters. Or something.

Two anecdotal proofs*:
1) Every year the Globe and Mail's Business section has a stock-picking competition among five or so analysts. They each pick one stock to perform well over the year. They also give one pick to a random child of an employee (changed in recent years to include high-school students). The year I read the results, the five-year-old daughter of one of the editors who picked the results with a doll placed third out of six.
2) During the NHL play-offs the team at TSN has a monkey pick play-off results each round. Maggie the macaque's picks have been eerily prescient on occasion. She has been right more often than not.

*that may or not be factually correct. Change anecdotal to apocryphal and I'm right as rain. Or something.

Federal polling III

More damning news for the Liberals:

Only 46% of Liberals think Dion would make the best leader for Canada. 14% pick Jack Layton. I like the guy, sure, but a good leader he is not.* I saw Jack Layton speak the other day and he engages the crowd and inspires people. Dion doesn't inspire much other than confidence in his intellect.

Edit: *or so I thought. This post on the Tyee has a Liberal candidate expressing admiration for a totally different sort of political leadership, a more inclusive and collaborative style.

Federal polling II

This just in: Those numbers below are wrong!

Environics just released a poll that has very different numbers than the Nanos polling below. They show the Conservatives holding quite the lead on the Liberals, rather than in a dead heat.

Cons-----38
Libs------28
NDP------19
Bloc-------8
Green-----7

What a difference a week can make? Bad polling? Different questions? Or just the nature of polling?

Last week's poll had the Conservatives at 29% in Ontario; this week's at 43%. Ontario and Quebec look like the provinces in which the Conservatives will make advances. (Outside of the cities, of course.)

It looks like Dion's plan of talking to Canadian's this summer about his environmental plan hasn't really worked. They just don't trust him to lead: three times as many Canadians say Harper will make a better PM (39-13%). What was Gerard Kennedy thinking...

Federal polling numbers

New polling numbers from Nanos have the Liberals and Conservatives gripped in a tie. I'm no pollster, but I did take a look at the numbers* and there are a few interesting bits.

-----------May --Aug
Libs: ------34 ----35
Cons: -----33 ----33
NDP: -----15 -----17
Bloc: ------11 -----8
Greens: ---8 ------7

Overall the numbers haven't shifted out of the statistical margin of accuracy since May. Regionally, however, there have been a few interesting changes:

1. In Atlantic Canada the Liberals jumped from 42 to 54%, gaining from the Green mostly who dropped from 10 to 2%.
2. The NDP rose from 5 to 13% in Quebec, largely at the expense of the Bloc, who dropped from 40 to 31%.
3. The NDP also gained in Ontario, from 17 to 21%, while the Conservatives sank to 29 from 33%.

I'm no analyst, but I have a few ideas about the results: The NDP have been pushing hard for gains in Quebec, and it's working. However, will it translate into seats? Difficult to say, but combined with their first breakthrough in the last election, things are looking good for them. The Bloc seem to have lost the struggle for ideas in the province. I would never predict their downfall, but I will guess that the three major federal parties will be looking at Quebec with hungry eyes.

As manufacturing jobs leave Ontario, support for the NDP grows?

The Green Party seems to be absent from the media. I don't follow the party federally at all, so I have no idea why they may have lost 8pts in the Maritimes. I suspect it's because people know there's an election coming and Green support is always highest between elections.

*poll was of 1000 committed voters. 16% were uncommitted. Margin of error of committed voters was 3.4%.