Edit

What is the point of all this if the only difference is slightly more NDP and Bloc seats and slightly less Liberal and seats?

Significant aspects of this election:

1) NDP laying claim to the possibility of governing this great land. 20% of the popular vote isn't that far from 28%, where the Liberals sit. It's a far cry from 35-38%, true, but it does signify a change in the tone of the NDP leadership.

2) The Bloc is not a spent force. A while ago it seemed like the Bloc was on the way out. No new ideas. A lack of identity without any real move toward sovereignty, and so on. Harper gifted them this, but the readiness with which voters moved back to the Bloc means they are and will be a meaningful force in federal politics for a while.

3) Stephane Dion on the come-back trail. I'm not sure how much he actually did (good reviews in both debates), and there remains the possibility that he'll be canned after the election is over, but I think he has shown Canadians that he isn't just an acharismatic egghead.

4) Last but not least: The coming-out party (ultimately a disappointment) of the Green party. Did they think they would finally win a seat? Why did Adriane Carr run in Vancouver Centre? We'll have to see what the final numbers are, but I'm pretty sure they'll improve on their vote total of 2006. May did very well in the debates, but until the Greens establish a voter-base and expand their party identity, they will struggle to retain the numbers they poll in the weeks leading up to the final vote.

Seat total predictions

Seats in Parliament as of the dissolution for the election, according to Wikipedia:
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
127----95----48-----30------1------3

Current prediction from democraticSPACE.com:
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
130----92----49-----35------0------2

If this is the final result (and it won't be), is there a winner? Does Harper keep on keepin' on? Does Dion remain, on the strength of his comeback? Does Layton trumpet his gains while decrying the electoral system (I would)? Does Elizabeth May have anything to add to the conversation? And who are these independents?

Prediction from the UBC Election Stock Market (as of 11:15am Thursday the 9th):
Cons - Libs - Bloc - NDP - Green - Ind
128----90----46-----41------0------3

Conservatives involved in sex trade!!

I just listened to two of the Conservative attack ads aimed at Dion. Heard this little gem, a reproduction of a message left by a Conservative woman:

"I'll tell you what I can't afford: Dion."

Can she afford other men? Do Conservative men and women comparison shop for sex? Is this the tip of the Conservative sex trade iceberg? Inquiring minds want to know.

Federal leadership debate

I'm watching the English debate streamed on CBC (it keeps re-setting, which is annoying). I tried the CTV site but nothing would load. I've watched about a third, and my impressions so far:

Harper held his ground, but only barely. He appeared at a loss when confronted about his investment spending (they've invested in the forestry and the automotive sectors?). He also wanted to be very clear, as he repeated frequently. He's been between jobs, and knows how hard it is for Canadians in danger of losing their jobs... really? And he can't seem to avoid his little smirk.

Dion's English was difficult, but he spoke with conviction. He forcefully defended the carbon tax, pulling out numbers of tax savings for lower-income Canadians. He attempted to carve out the middle economic ground, a phenomenon that would have been hard to imagine even a few years ago.

Layton had great lines (Where's the platform? Under the sweater?) and stood up for Canada's working families. His jibes at the Liberals should be worked into their campaign. The NDP, unfortunately for them, aren't a regional party, so a few points gained in the polls won't necessarily translate into an increase in seats.

May surprised me in two ways: demanding support for the pulp-and-paper sector (what?) and throwing economic numbers around comfortably. I can't see the Greens getting more than one seat, and even that is doubtful.

Duceppe reminds me of an alien. I really enjoy his almost disinterested engagement in the English language debate.

Regarding the environment: Harper has nothing. His record is ridiculous, and everyone seems to agree.

For a great commentary on the debate, see the Tyee's Blog-O-Rama.

Liberals just hoping to hold ground

This has been coming for a while. Senior Liberals are now saying that just holding onto what they have (95 seats) will be a challenge. Dion's leadership is under serious fire, and hope is partly resting on the leaders debates. What should he do? Three strategists gave their answers to the Globe. This sums up my feelings on the topic: "Not everyone can be a good leader."

Let's say the Liberals lose seats, maybe only 10 (seems likely). How long does Stephane Dion last as leader? I would think they would need a review before parliament sits in February. Can they hold one in November? What about January?

Federal polling III

More damning news for the Liberals:

Only 46% of Liberals think Dion would make the best leader for Canada. 14% pick Jack Layton. I like the guy, sure, but a good leader he is not.* I saw Jack Layton speak the other day and he engages the crowd and inspires people. Dion doesn't inspire much other than confidence in his intellect.

Edit: *or so I thought. This post on the Tyee has a Liberal candidate expressing admiration for a totally different sort of political leadership, a more inclusive and collaborative style.

Federal polling II

This just in: Those numbers below are wrong!

Environics just released a poll that has very different numbers than the Nanos polling below. They show the Conservatives holding quite the lead on the Liberals, rather than in a dead heat.

Cons-----38
Libs------28
NDP------19
Bloc-------8
Green-----7

What a difference a week can make? Bad polling? Different questions? Or just the nature of polling?

Last week's poll had the Conservatives at 29% in Ontario; this week's at 43%. Ontario and Quebec look like the provinces in which the Conservatives will make advances. (Outside of the cities, of course.)

It looks like Dion's plan of talking to Canadian's this summer about his environmental plan hasn't really worked. They just don't trust him to lead: three times as many Canadians say Harper will make a better PM (39-13%). What was Gerard Kennedy thinking...