Friday, August 29, 2008

Federal polling numbers

New polling numbers from Nanos have the Liberals and Conservatives gripped in a tie. I'm no pollster, but I did take a look at the numbers* and there are a few interesting bits.

-----------May --Aug
Libs: ------34 ----35
Cons: -----33 ----33
NDP: -----15 -----17
Bloc: ------11 -----8
Greens: ---8 ------7

Overall the numbers haven't shifted out of the statistical margin of accuracy since May. Regionally, however, there have been a few interesting changes:

1. In Atlantic Canada the Liberals jumped from 42 to 54%, gaining from the Green mostly who dropped from 10 to 2%.
2. The NDP rose from 5 to 13% in Quebec, largely at the expense of the Bloc, who dropped from 40 to 31%.
3. The NDP also gained in Ontario, from 17 to 21%, while the Conservatives sank to 29 from 33%.

I'm no analyst, but I have a few ideas about the results: The NDP have been pushing hard for gains in Quebec, and it's working. However, will it translate into seats? Difficult to say, but combined with their first breakthrough in the last election, things are looking good for them. The Bloc seem to have lost the struggle for ideas in the province. I would never predict their downfall, but I will guess that the three major federal parties will be looking at Quebec with hungry eyes.

As manufacturing jobs leave Ontario, support for the NDP grows?

The Green Party seems to be absent from the media. I don't follow the party federally at all, so I have no idea why they may have lost 8pts in the Maritimes. I suspect it's because people know there's an election coming and Green support is always highest between elections.

*poll was of 1000 committed voters. 16% were uncommitted. Margin of error of committed voters was 3.4%.

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